Storm begins to coat Chicago area with snow


























































Between and inch-and-a-half and two-and-a-half inches of snow has fallen across much of the Chicago region, though the snow is expected to turn to freezing drizzle in the next couple hours.


Meteorologists have scaled back their predictions on snow fall totals from the storm, though.


Illinois State Police described conditions as "horrible" and have responded to about 15 crashes already.








State Police are in a "snow plan" and aren't responding to accidents without injuries - those are supposed to be reported later.


"It will be tapering off from the south in the next couple hours, possibly some freezing drizzle across whole area," said Mark Ratzer, meteorologist for the National Weather Service. "We may end up coming in a little less."


The city of Chicago has sent 199 plows to work clearing main thoroughfares, according to the streets and sanitation department.


Check back for more information.


chicagobreaking@tribune.com

Twitter: @ChicagoBreaking







Read More..

Doubt on Fed easing hits shares, commodities

LONDON (Reuters) - World share markets fell and the dollar and safe-haven assets rose on Thursday, a day after minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting cast doubts over how much longer the U.S. central bank would stick to its stimulus plan.


After the minutes were released the euro skidded to a six-week low against the dollar of $1.3235, Asian shares experienced their worst day in seven months and gold hit its lowest price since last July, at $1,554.49 an ounce.


"Disagreement over the current path is causing concern for a market that demands certainty," Ben Taylor, a trader at CMC Markets, said of evidence Fed officials were divided on policy.


MSCI's world equity index <.miwd00000pus>, which only on Wednesday had touched a 4-1/2 year high, fell 0.5 percent as the benchmark S&P 500 index <.spx> suffered its steepest daily percentage decline since mid-November.


European markets joined in the selloff with the FTSE Eurofirst 300 index <.fteu3> shedding 0.5 percent, led lower by the banks <.sxip>, which have been at forefront of recent gains. London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> were all down as much as 0.7 percent.


However, market sentiment could get some support from the release of first reading from February Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) from across Europe later in the day.


The euro-zone composite PMI is expected to have risen for a fourth consecutive month in February to around 49.0, adding to evidence that economic conditions across the recession-hit region are gradually improving.


The PMI reading would still leave the composite index below the 50 mark which separates expansion from contraction and analysts estimate it would be consistent with a small fall in GDP for a fourth consecutive quarter.


In the fixed income market, German bonds, normally considered a safe haven, saw prices rise with the main Bund futures contract up 30 ticks to 142.85. The move reversed a fall seen on Wednesday but kept the contract within a narrow band before an Italian general election this weekend.


Spain was set to test market sentiment for peripheral euro zone debt with the sale of up to four billion euros of new paper.


The dollar followed up a big gain on Wednesday against a basket of major currencies to add a further 0.1 percent, although it dipped slightly against the yen to 93.41.


Among commodities, London copper struck its lowest in nearly two months, at $7,880 a metric ton, while crude oil extended losses after posting its biggest daily fall so far this year on Wednesday.


(Reporting by Richard Hubbard; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)



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Police: Pistorius detective faces charges himself


PRETORIA, South Africa (AP) — The lead investigator in the murder case against Oscar Pistorius faces attempted murder charges himself over a 2011 shooting, police said Thursday in another potentially damaging blow to the prosecution.


Prosecutors said they were unaware of the charges against veteran detective Hilton Botha when they put him on the stand in court to explain why Pistorius should not be given bail in the Valentine's Day shooting death of his girlfriend.


Prosecutors say Pistorius intentionally killed model Reeva Steenkamp and have charged him with premeditated murder. Pistorius says he mistook Steenkamp for an intruder and that the shooting was accidental.


Police Brig. Neville Malila told The Associated Press that Botha — who gave testimony in the Pistorius bail hearing on Wednesday — is scheduled to appear in court in May on seven counts of attempted murder related to an incident in October 2011 when Botha and two other police officers fired at a minibus they were trying to stop.


Malila said police had learned Wednesday, the same day that Botha appeared in court to oppose Pistorius' bail application, that the charges against Botha and the two others had been reinstated by the Director of Public Prosecutions. They were initially dropped following the shooting incident.


Malila said police were now waiting for details from the Botha case file from the public prosecutor.


Medupe Simasiku, the spokesman for the prosecutors charging Pistorius with premeditated murder, said he couldn't say how the charges against Botha would affect their case against Pistorius.


In the state case against the Olympic athlete, Botha offered often confused testimony and conceded that nothing in Pistorius' account the Steenkamp shooting contradicted the police's version.


Simasiku said that based on the reinstated accusation against Botha, "we can take action and see if we remove him from the investigation or if he stays."


Botha was the lead investigator in an assault claim against Pistorius in 2009. Pistorius' lawyers said police arrested the athlete and held him overnight at a police station and said they will pursue a lawsuit against police for wrongful arrest.


The current case against Pistorius, which is still only in a bail hearing, has riveted much of the world. Pistorius, 26-year-old the man known as the Blade Runner for his carbon-fiber running prosthetic legs, says he fired shots through the locked door of a toilet enclosed inside his bathroom because he thought there was an intruder in there.


Steenkamp was hit three times, in the head, right elbow and right hip, police say, and prosecutors argue Pistorius intended to kill his 29-year-old girlfriend after a fight in the early hours of Valentine's Day.


___


AP Sports Writer Gerald Imray in Johannesburg contributed to this report.


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Tribune exclusive: 'We were just regular parents who were slapped in the face'




















The parents of slain teen Hadiya Pendleton talk about her life and death and the issues raised after she died. (Chris Walker/Chicago Tribune)






















































Hadiya Pendleton’s parents haven’t had much time to reminisce about their daughter’s life and death before Wednesday, when they sat down for an exclusive interview with the Tribune.


Cleopatra Cowley-Pendleton recalled getting the phone call on Jan. 29 that her 15-year-old daughter had been shot, and rushing to the hospital only to find out it was too late, her daughter was dead.


A whirlwind of activity followed as Hadiya became a national symbol of gun violence and her parents traveled to Washington for President Barack Obama’s State of the Union speech.


“I’m not going to be extremely political, but if I can help someone else not go through what we’ve gone through, then I have to do what I can,” Cowley-Pendleton said. “These are the cards we have been dealt. If these are the shoes I need to walk in, I don’t mind walking in them.”


To read the full story, you must be a digitalPlus member.





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Mexico security forces abducted dozens in drug war: rights group


IGUALA, Mexico (Reuters) - Dozens of people were abducted and murdered by Mexican security forces over the past six years during a gruesome war with drug cartels, Human Rights Watch said on Wednesday, urging President Enrique Pena Nieto to overhaul the military justice system.


The rights group said that since 2007 it has documented 149 cases of people who were never seen again after falling into the hands of security forces, and that the government failed to properly investigate the "disappearances."


"The result was the most severe crisis of enforced disappearances in Latin America in decades," the U.S.-based group said. (Human Rights Watch report: http://r.reuters.com/fyk26t)


It recommended reforming Mexico's military justice system and creating a national database to link the missing with the thousands of unidentified bodies that piled up during the military-led crackdown on drug cartels.


The report was a grim reminder of the dark side of the war on drug cartels that killed an estimated 70,000 people during former President Felipe Calderon's six-year presidency.


The report also illustrates the obstacles that President Pena Nieto, who took office in December, faces in trying to stem the violence, restore order over areas of the country controlled by the drug cartels and end abuses by security forces.


For nearly three years, 56-year-old shopkeeper Maria Orozco has sought to discover the fate of her son. She says he was abducted along with five colleagues by soldiers from the nightclub where they worked in Iguala, a parched town south of the Mexican capital.


She says a grainy security video, submitted anonymously, shows the moment in 2010 when local soldiers rounded up the men.


"We used to see the military like Superman or Batman or Robin. Super heroes," said Orozco. "Now the spirit of the whole country has turned against them."


Hers was one of the cases illustrated in the Human Rights Watch report.


Pena Nieto has vowed to take a different tack to his predecessor Calderon and focus on reducing violent crime and extortion rather than on going head to head with drug cartels.


The government last month introduced a long-delayed law to trace victims of the drug war and compensate the families. It says it is moving ahead with plans to roll out a genetic database to track victims and help families locate the disappeared.


"There exists, in theory, a database with more than 27,000 people on it," said Lia Limon, deputy secretary of human rights at Mexico's interior ministry. "It's a job that's beginning."


Still, impunity remains rife. The armed forces opened nearly 5,000 investigations into criminal wrongdoing between 2007 and 2012, but only 38 ended in sentencing, according to Human Rights Watch.


In its report it describes the impact of the disappearances on victims' families, a daily reality for Ixchel Mireles, a 50-year-old librarian from the northern city of Torreon, whose husband Hector Tapia was abducted by men in federal police uniforms.


Neither Mireles nor her daughter has heard from Tapia since that night in June 2010.


"I want him to be alive, but the reality just destroys me," said Mireles. "I just want them to give him back, even if he is dead."


Since her husband's disappearance, Mireles has struggled financially, having lost his 40,000 pesos ($3,143) a month salary. She has moved her daughter to a cheaper university and can barely keep up payments on her house.


"I now travel by foot," she said, noting that Mexico's social security system does not recognize the disappeared.


Some family members of the disappeared have asked for soldiers guilty of rights abuses to be judged like civilians, a move Mexico's Supreme Court has approved.


"To us it just seems that the military is untouchable," said Laura Orozco, 36, who says she witnessed her brother's military-led abduction. "They're bulletproof."


($1 = 12.73 pesos)


(Additional reporting by Michael O'Boyle,; Editing by Simon Gardner, Kieran Murray and Lisa Shumaker)



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European shares steady awaiting further growth signals

LONDON (Reuters) - European share markets were little changed on Wednesday, awaiting further signs of improving global economic recovery after a big rise in the previous session fuelled by encouraging German data.


The FTSE Eurofirst <.fteu3> index of top European shares was down 0.1 percent in early trading, having gained 1.1 percent on Tuesday, its best day for three weeks <.fteu3>.


London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> were all close to flat. <.eu/>


"I see no reason why we can't consolidate the gains and possibly move higher," said Michael Hewson, an analyst at CMC Markets.


Global share markets surged on Tuesday after forecast-beating German sentiment data pointed to an accelerating recovery in Europe's largest economy.


The data comes ahead of more important euro zone flash Purchasing Managers Indexes on Thursday and a German business sentiment survey on Friday that could show whether the region's recovery is taking hold.


The rising hopes of recovery have been supported on Wall Street by a surge in merger activity that has sent U.S. benchmark shares indexes close to record highs. <.n>.


In Asia, share markets outside Japan are at 18-month highs <.miapj0000pus>, as the relatively stronger growth outlook compared with Europe and the United States has drawn in foreign investors.


The rise in equities has weighed on assets perceived as safe havens, with German Bund futures down 25 ticks in early trade to 142.57, though news that Spain may be about to issue a U.S. dollar bond supported sentiment.


In the currency markets the euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3413 but sterling fell to its lowest in nearly 16 months against a trade-weighted basket of currencies.


Currency traders have their eyes on central banks and the minutes of policy meetings at the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve that are due to be published later in the day.


The Bank of England minutes at 0930 GMT may reiterate a tolerance for higher inflation or greater disagreement among policymakers over the value of restarting the bank's asset purchase program.


Commodities markets mostly followed equities higher, with spot gold inching up 0.2 percent to $1,605.90 an ounce but stuck near a six-month low.


London copper edged up 0.2 percent to $8,067.75 a metric ton, off Tuesday's three-week lows but Brent crude was little changed at $117.47 a barrel.


(Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano in Singapore and Thuy Ong in Sydney; Editing by Eric Meijer)



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Detective in court: Pistorius a flight risk


PRETORIA, South Africa (AP) — A detective has testified that Oscar Pistorius is a flight risk and shouldn't be granted bail.


Hilton Botha also said in the star athlete's bail hearing Wednesday that Pistorius illegally possessed .38-caliber ammunition in a safe in his bedroom. Pistorius is charged with premeditated murder for the Valentine's Day shooting death of girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp with a 9 mm pistol. The policeman testified that Pistorius did not have a license for a .38-caliber weapon and consequently possession of that ammunition was illegal.


Pistorius argued in a court affidavit Tuesday that the shooting was accidental and he thought the model was an intruder in his home.


The detective says all Pistorius would say after the shooting was "he thought it was a burglar."


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Obama can't kick his legacy down road











By Gloria Borger, CNN Chief Political Analyst


February 19, 2013 -- Updated 2122 GMT (0522 HKT)







President Obama has a small window of opportunity to get Congress to act on his priorities, Gloria Borger says.




STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • Gloria Borger: Prospect of deep budget cuts was designed to compel compromise

  • She says the "unthinkable" cuts now have many supporters

  • The likelihood that cuts may happen shows new level of D.C. dysfunction, she says

  • Borger: President may want a 2014 House victory, but action needed now




(CNN) -- So let's try to recount why we are where we are. In August 2011, Washington was trying to figure out how to raise the debt ceiling -- so the US might continue to pay its bills -- when a stunt was hatched: Kick the can down the road.


And not only kick it down the road, but do it in a way that would eventually force Washington to do its job: Invent a punishment.



Gloria Borger

Gloria Borger



If the politicians failed to come up with some kind of budget deal, the blunt instrument of across-the-board cuts in every area would await.


Unthinkable! Untenable!


Until now.


In fact, something designed to be worse than any conceivable agreement is now completely acceptable to many.



And not only are these forced budget cuts considered acceptable, they're even applauded. Some Republicans figure they'll never find a way to get 5% across-the-board domestic spending cuts like this again, so go for it. And some liberal Democrats likewise say 8% cuts in military spending are better than anything we might get on our own, so go for it.


The result: A draconian plan designed to force the two sides to get together has now turned out to be too weak to do that.


And what does that tell us? More about the collapse of the political process than it does about the merits of any budget cuts. Official Washington has completely abdicated responsibility, taking its dysfunction to a new level -- which is really saying something.


We've learned since the election that the second-term president is feeling chipper. With re-election came the power to force Republicans to raise taxes on the wealthy in the fiscal cliff negotiations, and good for him. Americans voted, and said that's what they wanted, and so it happened. Even the most sullen Republicans knew that tax fight had been lost.


Points on the board for the White House.




Now the evil "sequester" -- the forced budget cuts -- looms. And the president proposes what he calls a "balanced" approach: closing tax loopholes on the rich and budget cuts. It's something he knows Republicans will never go for. They raised taxes six weeks ago, and they're not going to do it again now. They already gave at the office. And Republicans also say, with some merit, that taxes were never meant to be a part of the discussion of across-the-board cuts. It's about spending.


Here's the problem: The election is over. Obama won, and he doesn't really have to keep telling us -- or showing us, via staged campaign-style events like the one Tuesday in which he used police officers as props while he opposed the forced spending cuts.


What we're waiting for is the plan to translate victory into effective governance.


Sure, there's no doubt the president has the upper hand. He's right to believe that GOP calls for austerity do not constitute a cohesive party platform. He knows that the GOP has no singular, effective leader, and that its message is unformed. And he's probably hoping that the next two years can be used effectively to further undermine the GOP and win back a Democratic majority in the House.


Slight problem: There's plenty of real work to be done, on the budget, on tax reform, on immigration, climate change and guns. A second-term president has a small window of opportunity. And a presidential legacy is not something that can be kicked down the road.


Follow @CNNOpinion on Twitter.


Join us at Facebook/CNNOpinion.


The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Gloria Borger.











Part of complete coverage on







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February 19, 2013 -- Updated 1728 GMT (0128 HKT)



Frida Ghitis says the murder of Reeva Steenkamp allegedly by Oscar Pistorius is a reminder that we have to do more to protect women.



















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Cops shoot suspect they say is wanted in string of heists





























































Chicago police officers shot a man near a busy Bucktown neighborhood intersection after a pursuit that stemmed from an armed robbery at a Subway restaurant on the Near North Side, police said.


Police said the suspect is the same man wanted in more than a dozen robberies of North Side convenience stores and restaurants.


Police said the man shot tonight, about 11:50 p.m., fled from a Subway at 816 N. State Street and the pursuit ended when his SUV crashed into a car outside a Walgreens at 1601 N. Milwaukee Ave.








Police said the suspect did not respond to commands and made suspicious movements inside the vehicle before he was shot.


The other robberies police are investigating happened most often between 11:30 p.m. and 2:15 a.m.


Among the pair: two within hours of each other at 2200 N. Lincoln Avenue and 300 W. Chicago Avenue early in the morning of Feb. 6. 


It’s unclear if the man was shot inside or outside the vehicle and his condition is not known. He was taken to John H. Stroger Jr. Hospital of Cook County and is expected to survive, police said. 


Police from a number of nearby districts responded to the scene after officers called "10-1," a radio term used to signal an officer, firefighter or paramedic in distress. Detectives from two of the three city detective areas also responded to the scene.


Detectives approached people inside and out of the numerous bars that line the intersection asking if anyone saw anything. 


Traffic in the area, including CTA buses, is being rerouted through the neighboring side streets. 


 Check back for updates.




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Insight: Rome will burn, regardless of Italian election result


ROME (Reuters) - Regardless of who wins next weekend's parliamentary election, Italy's long economic decline is likely to continue because the next government won't be strong enough to pursue the tough reforms needed to make its economy competitive again.


Bankers, diplomats and industrialists in Rome and Milan despair at how Italians are shifting allegiances ahead of the February 24-25 vote to favor anti-establishment upstarts and show disgust with the established parties.


That makes it more likely that no bloc will have the political strength to tackle Italy's deep-rooted economic crisis, which has made it Europe's most sluggish large economy for the past two decades.


Final opinion polls predict that the vote will deliver a working majority in both houses for a centre-left coalition governing in alliance with technocrat former prime minister Mario Monti. Political risk consultancy Eurasia assigns this scenario a 50-60 percent probability.


But Italy's election for both chambers of parliament has the potential to tip the euro zone back into instability if the outcome does not produce that result.


The colorful cast of candidates includes disgraced media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi, one of the world's richest men, the bespectacled academic Monti, anti-establishment comedian Beppe Grillo who campaigns from a camper van, and Nichi Vendola, a former communist poet who is the governor of Puglia.


Investors have so far taken a relaxed view, relying on polls produced until the legal deadline for surveys of Feb 10.


One of the best indicators that they are not worried: Italian benchmark 10-year bond yields, which topped six percent during the country's worst political moments in 2011, are now trading around 4.4 percent, almost a full percentage point lower than those of Spain.


Italian stocks have performed broadly in line with the wider European market since January, despite the election and a wave of scandals which has engulfed several leading Italian groups.


But observers in Italy are increasingly nervous that the rosy election scenario favored by investors may not work out.


A jaded electorate, angry about political corruption, economic mismanagement and a national crisis that has impoverished a once-wealthy member of the G7 club of rich nations, could produce a surprise.


Pier Luigi Bersani, the standard-bearer for the centre-left, is a worthy but lackluster former minister whose party has been linked to a banking scandal in the mediaeval Tuscan town of Siena. Support for his party now seems to be fading.


Opponents have latched on to the fact that the ailing bank, Monte dei Paschi, was run by a foundation dominated by political appointees from the centre-left and accused Bersani's party of presiding over a debacle that will cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of euros.


CAMPER VAN POLITICS


Monti, dubbed "Rigor Montis" by one opponent for his austerity policies which critics say hurt growth, is stuck in fourth place and slipping. Detractors say he comes across poorly on the hustings and has been hurt because he formed an election alliance with two discredited centrist politicians who are emblematic of the traditional politics which Monti disavows.


The big gainer in the final days before the election, according to private surveys quoted by experts, is stand-up comedian Beppe Grillo and his anti-establishment 5-Star Movement. Grillo has been on a "tsunami tour" of Italy in a camper van, filling piazzas with his ringing denunciations of the country's political class. He campaigns mainly on the Internet, where his widely read blog features a list of Italy's parliamentarians convicted of a crime (it features 24 names).


"The big question is: what happens to Grillo?" said one senior banker in Milan, speaking on condition of anonymity. "He won't win but he could stop Bersani and Monti from getting enough seats to form an effective government."


Under the electoral law in force for this poll, which almost all Italians agree is in need of reform, voters cast ballots for a party list. The coalition with the most votes is awarded top-up seats in the lower house to give it a 55 percent majority. But in the Senate, the top-up premium applies by region.


Pollsters say the race is too close to call in a few battleground regions but there is a good chance the centre-left will fall short of a majority in the Senate, which has equal law-making powers to the lower house.


A substantial vote for Grillo's movement - and some experts suggest he could top 20 percent - could mean the new parliament is filled with new, inexperienced, anti-establishment deputies who may refuse to do deals with other politicians and block legislation. Bersani and Monti could find themselves without a workable majority in the Senate even in alliance - a scenario which Eurasia believe has a 20-30 percent probability.


"It's hard to see Grillo's movement as a source of stability," said one diplomat, speaking off the record. "There is no chance they would be part of a coalition."


CONVICTION POLITICIAN


Ironically Grillo himself will not be entering parliament regardless of how well his movement does. The shaggy-haired 63-year-old was convicted of manslaughter after three passengers died when a jeep he was driving crashed in 1981, making him ineligible for election under his own party's rules barring convicted criminals from parliament.


"Grillo's agenda is just silly," said one leading Italian columnist, speaking anonymously because his publication did not allow him to be quoted in other media before the vote.


"It's a fuck off policy. He wants to leave Europe, set up people's tribunals, halve public employees. It's the most visible symptom of Italy's political crisis."


The 5-Star Movement is not the only anti-establishment force threatening to make Italy ungovernable. The federalist Northern League, which favors greater autonomy for northern Italy, is polling around five percent nationally. Its leader Roberto Maroni told Reuters last week he would use his seats in parliament in alliance with the centre-right to block a centre-left coalition and prevent it from governing.


The League is particularly important in the Senate as its home region of Lombardy, where the party polls about 15 percent, returns by far the most senators - 49 out of a chamber of 319.


Should Grillo's movement and the Northern League win enough seats to deprive a centre-left coalition with Monti of an overall majority, the most likely outcome is a "grand coalition" of left and right, experts say.


Such a result would unsettle investors because it would be likely to bring centre-right leader former premier Berlusconi, 76, back into government in a key role and Monti would be unlikely to join it.


Berlusconi's own party has boosted its standing in polls over the past month, helped by the former premier's veteran campaigning skill and his dominance of the country's private TV channels. But nobody apart from his own supporters believes he is likely to win this time.


POPE FACTOR


Pope Benedict's unexpected resignation this month has pushed the parliamentary election off the front pages in Italy, giving Berlusconi less print space and TV air time to press his populist message. The main beneficiary appears to be Grillo, whose strategy of ignoring mainstream media and campaigning on the Internet has been unaffected by the news from the Vatican.


Investors above all want a government which will tackle the reasons for Italy's lackluster performance. Italy has hardly grown since the birth of the euro in 1999 and its economy has slumped faster since the 2007 financial crisis than any other in Europe except Greece. Last year, Italy contracted by 2.2 percent, according to official statistics.


Businessmen complain of three main obstacles: stifling bureaucracy, labor laws which offer workers so much protection that they encourage slack performance, and a dysfunctional court system which makes it hard to enforce contracts and collect debts. All are deep-rooted problems and none is likely to be tackled effectively by a weak and divided government.


"Nobody in Italy is ready to make the reforms our country needs right now," said the chief executive of a major Italian company, speaking off the record.


"I am deeply convinced that without a major change in labor flexibility, we will not be able to increase productivity. My personal experience is that Italian labor is fantastic. But if you take a very good worker and tell him his job is completely safe, you will turn him into a slacker."


Italy's byzantine court system - where cases can languish for years - and its legendary bureaucracy are major obstacles to foreign investment and competitiveness, business people and diplomats say. "Foreign companies are surprised by how hard it is to get things done here which we all thought had been agreed in Brussels 20 years ago," said one senior European diplomat.


Monti's technocratic government won plaudits from business for reforming Italy's pension system but its efforts to reform labor laws did not enjoy similar success. Monti's government lasted 13 months until Berlusconi's bloc triggered its collapse by withdrawing support. Some observers in Italy don't believe that the next parliament's make-up will be nearly as conducive to reform as the outgoing one.


MUDDLE-THROUGH OUTCOME


"I want to be optimistic but my best guess is that they will keep to this muddle-through scenario in the next parliament with lackluster results for the economy," said a second senior diplomat. "This country needs a new generation of political leaders."


Key among the concerns of diplomats and business people is the disparate nature of the centre-left coalition leading in polls.


Bersani's election alliance is made up of four main parties, stretching from the former communist Vendola through the Christian left to socialists and centrists. If it is unable to govern alone, as most polls predict, it will need the support of Monti's bloc - itself made up of three parties.


Bankers fear that a government made up of seven different groups of widely varying political hues is highly unlikely to agree on the tough, radical reform measures the country needs.


"If we have a government made up of Bersani, Monti and Vendola, they will argue all the time," said the chief executive. "Bersani and Vendola's capacity for reform is almost zero." Comparing the present Italian centre-left candidate to the former German chancellor whose successful labor reforms belied his socialist roots, he added: "Bersani is no Schroeder".


Bersani's economic spokesman Stefano Fassina insists that the centre-left fully understands the urgency of Italy's economic plight and is committed to deliver on measures to stop the rot. But he puts the emphasis on making the public sector more efficient and persuading Berlin to tone down budget austerity at a European level rather than pursuing labor reform in Italy. Fassina insists that public commitments by Bersani and Vendola on an agreed program will minimize disagreements but he does admit to concern about how a centre-left administration could work with Grillo's unpredictable forces.


"It's impossible to have any discussions with Grillo as a party," he said. "We hope that in parliament some of his MPs will be pragmatic enough to agree on reasonable measures."


With so much uncertainty about the election and the chances fading of it returning a strong, stable reformist government, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Italy's slow, steady economic decline will continue regardless of the result.


"We've seen a steady economic decline in Italy over the past 20 years and it's very hard to see any outcome from this election which will reverse that. The reforms which would really get the country going again are out of reach," concluded the European diplomat.


(Editing by Peter Millership and Giles Elgood)



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